Welcome to Three Shots at the Green, where each week I’ll use my experience as a PGA Tour caddie and golf writer to identify the three best bets on the board.
Golf fans are in for a treat this week as the PGA Championship, comfortable now in its May date, puts a gem in Rochester, NY on center stage.
The venerable East Course at Oak Hill Country Club is in immaculate condition after architect Andrew Green’s outstanding renovation which erased the disastrous changes Tom and George Fazio, among others, made through the years.
It’s a relentless, big-boy course, testing the game through the bag. The twisting 27 to 28-yard wide fairways, undulating Donald Ross greens, beefy par-3s add up to a 7,390-yard, par-70 test certain to identify the best golfer over 72 holes.
Power off the tee is pivotal this week. Early reports from Oak Hill indicate those who can carry their driver the most will have an edge, attacking the doglegs, blasting over bunkers and giving themselves the shortest club possible from the rough – which is where half the field’s tee shots will come to rest.
The accurate driving / superior long iron combination can also work but regardless of the long-game skill set, a player better have a deft short game – in particular excellent bunker play – and the imagination and touch to handle the sloping bentgrass greens.
The recent restoration of Oak Hill to its Donald Ross roots back when the course opened in 1926 will debut this week at the #PGAChamp.
— PGA Championship (@PGAChampionship) May 15, 2023
Oak Hill requires mental toughness to deal with the inevitable fate of getting “Rossed” – a seemingly good approach shot rolling slowly off a green and down a slope into a tightly mown collection area, bunker or first cut of rough.
Current form is the most important ingredient in handicapping this tournament, though. Pros aren’t going to find their game on a true, through-the-bag test such as Oak Hill, which will expose any flaws. There’s a fine line between success and failure off-the-tee and on approach.
Let’s take three shots at the green.
Tony Finau Top 10 +240
Finau, who won three weeks ago in Mexico, is the only player in the field to rank in the top 25 in our driving, approach and short game model over the last 36 rounds. He is a proven player in majors, finishing in the top-10 in three of eight PGA Championship starts and 10 of 27 majors overall.
Finau ranks second in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 36 rounds and is sixth in the key proximity distance, 175-200 yards, over the last 100 rounds. What really stands out is his improvement around the greens. Finau has gained shots in that area in his last three starts and is 14th in this field in sand saves.
Max Homa Top 20 +180
I’d argue that Homa is the most mispriced player in the field in any market. The bookmakers are obviously holding his mediocre record in majors against him. I’m more concerned with how he’s performed on similar long, driver-heavy courses in recent years – winning at Quail Hollow, TPC Potomac, Torrey Pines and Riviera, hitting great long irons and making drastic upgrades to his short game.
Homa gained shots in every area in a top-10 at Quail Hollow two weeks ago. He’s sixth in the field in SG: Around-the-Green and top-25 in greens in regulation on longer courses.
Adam Scott Top 20 +300
I’m riding the hot hand here. Scott finished top-10 each of the last two weeks, gaining shots through the bag and putting as well as he has at any point in his career. He’s no stranger to major leaderboards, stating on multiple occasions his desire to win one more before he drifts into retirement.
Scott’s experience will be invaluable this week. He’s gained shots Off-the-Tee in seven of eight tournaments in 2023 and Around-the-Green in four of the last five.
Last Week: Stephan Jaeger easily cashed a top-20 placement. Eric Cole missed by one shot, struggling in the third round. Our longshot pick Michael Kim missed the cut.
YTD: -15.1 units
