Golfstradamus: Arnold Palmer Invitational

Hello, friends and degenerates! This week, the PGA Tour heads to Orlando for the second leg of the Florida swing — the Arnold Palmer Invitational. 

So much of this event is about the memory of Arnold Palmer, the icon for whom the event is named. Besides the majors and the Players, this is the event the Tour’s best want to win, even if it no longer means a photo with the King. You can bet the big names will all be near the top of the leaderboard come Sunday. 

But which one has the best chance of winning? Which long shot could pull a Keith Mitchell and break the hearts of Tour pros and gamblers alike? 

After a week of utter disappointment, it’s time to get back in the saddle and back in the winner’s circle. Here’s a look at your can’t-miss, no-doubt, sure-fire, mortal locks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational:

Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club & Lodge – Orlando, Florida
March 7 – 10, 2019

ODDS to Win:
Rory McIlroy 7/1
Justin Rose 10/1
Brooks Koepka 12/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Jason Day 14/1
Bryson DeChambeau 16/1
Hideki Matsuyama 25/1
Francesco Molinari 25/1
Marc Leishman 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Phil Mickelson 40/1
Ian Poulter 40/1
Louis Oosthuizen 40/1
Charles Howell III 40/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
Billy Horschel 40/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 50/1
Henrik Stenson 50/1
Lucas Glover 50/1
Daniel Berger 60/1
Zach Johnson 60/1
Tyrrell Hatton 60/1
Si Woo Kim 60/1
Haotong Li 60/1
Jason Kokrak 60/1
Michael Thompson 60/1
J.B. Holmes 80/1
Brandt Snedeker 80/1
Byeong Hun An 80/1
Cameron Champ 80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80/1
Luke List 80/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Adam Hadwin 80/1
Charl Schwartzel WD
Matt Wallace 80/1
Keith Mitchell 80/1
Sungjae Im 100/1
Aaron Wise 100/1
Shane Lowry 100/1
Kevin Na 100/1
Scott Piercy 100/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Talor Gooch 100/1
Matt Every 100/1
Charley Hoffman 100/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 100/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 125/1
Beau Hossler 125/1
Abraham Ancer 125/1
Danny Willett 125/1
Joaquin Niemann 150/1
Patrick Rodgers 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Jhonattan Vegas 150/1
Bud Cauley 100/1
J.T. Poston 150/1
Sung Kang 150/1
Martin Kaymer 150/1
Graeme McDowell 150/1
Martin Laird 150/1
Chesson Hadley 150/1
Austin Cook 150/1
C.T. Pan 150/1
Harold Varner III 150/1
Brian Gay 150/1
Bill Haas 200/1
Eddie Pepperell 200/1
Pat Perez 200/1
Brian Harman 200/1
Sam Burns 200/1
Jimmy Walker 200/1
Stewart Cink 200/1
Sam Horsfield 200/1
Steve Stricker 200/1
Vijay Singh 200/1
Jason Dufner 200/1
Field (all others) 12/1

Mortal Locks 

Rory McIlroy — It’s got to be tough to be Rory McIlroy. Well, professionally, at least. The poor guy has done nothing but play great golf this season and no one cares because he hasn’t won. That changes this week at Bay Hill. Last year, McIlroy won this event on the strength of a blazing hot flat stick. This year, the rest of his game has been carrying him. At 7/1, he’s the favorite for good reason. 

Bryson DeChambeau — Some might say its a cop out to take the winner and runner-up from the 2018 edition of the AP Invitational, but the numbers don’t lie. Both McIlroy and Bryson DeChambeau are great bets this week. Take that second place finish here last year and pile that onto five wins in the last nine months world-wide and you’ve got the recipe for a mortal lock. At 16/1, you’d be foolish not to take the action on DeChambeau. 

Best Bets

Ian Poulter — With all the great play from the big names early in 2019 it’s possible you’ve missed the momentum that Ian Poulter has been building. Coming into the AP Invitational, Poults has alternated T-6 and T-3 finishes in his last four starts. Couple that with a decent track record at Bay Hill and this could be the week Poulter returns to the winner’s circle. At 40/1, you’ll be glad when he does. 

Zach Johnson — Two-time major champion Zach Johnson has fallen off the radar for most degenerates in recent months, but it’s time to pick him back up. Johnson has been less than stellar this year, but his track record at Bay Hill warrants a look. Since 2004, ZJ has missed just one cut and collected five top-10 finishes. At 60/1, the juice is worth the squeeze. 

Fun Under $5

Matt Every — Perhaps the best long shot every year at the AP Invitational is Matt Every. Every won this event in 2014 and 2015 but has been abysmal since. He’s teeing it up this week with some good juju on his side, however. Every has finished in the top 20 in all four PGA Tour starts this year. When you consider he’s getting 100/1, you have to at least consider throwing a $5 on Every this week. 

There you have it, friends and degenerates! Now if you’ll excuse me,  Ol’ No. 1 is off to see the taxman. Thoughts and prayers are appreciated. 

Until next time, go and choose wisely…