Golfstradamus: Waste Management Phoenix Open

Hello, friends and degenerates! It’s time once more for the biggest party in golf — the Waste Management Phoenix Open. And to boot — on Super Bowl weekend! Be still my beating heart! 

As the calendar turns to February, the action on PGA Tour begins to get better and better as we check of tournaments like notches in a belt on our way to Augusta in April. It doesn’t feel like spring just yet — but you can almost feel the disappointment of watching Patrick Reed slip his arms into the green jacket once more — but let’s not get ahead of ourselves…

This week there’s plenty to be grateful for if you’re a gambler. Not only do you have some easy choices at the Waste Management, you’ve got the Super Bowl, too. If you’re wise, you’ll be able to parlay your knowledge and mine into a big pay day. 

As an added bonus this week, we’ll get to hear Johnny Miller condescend the world’s best for the last time as retires at the end the tournament broadcast. Too bad there’s no action on how many times he’ll remind us how much better he is/was than the current best players are. I’d take the over. 

Here’s a look at your sure-fire, can’t-miss, no-doubt, slam-dunk bets at the 2019 Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Waste Management Phoenix Open
TPC Scottsdale – Scottsdale, Arizona
January 31 – February 3, 2019


ODDS to Win:

Jon Rahm 7/1
Justin Thomas 9/1
Hideki Matsuyama 12/1
Tony Finau 18/1
Xander Schauffele 18/1
Gary Woodland 18/1
Rickie Fowler 20/1
Webb Simpson 20/1
Phil Mickelson 20/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Cameron Smith 30/1
Bubba Watson 40/1
Adam Hadwin 40/1
Billy Horschel 40/1
Byeong Hun An 40/1
Chez Reavie 40/1
Cameron Champ 50/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
Daniel Berger 50/1
Emiliano Grillo 50/1
Andrew Putnam 50/1
Zach Johnson 60/1
Alex Noren 60/1
Tyrrell Hatton 60/1
Brandt Snedeker 60/1
Abraham Ancer 60/1
Luke List 60/1
Lucas Glover 60/1
Ryan Palmer 80/1
J.B. Holmes 80/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Branden Grace 80/1
Kyle Stanley 80/1
Si Woo Kim 80/1
Sungjae Im 80/1
Austin Cook 80/1
Talor Gooch 80/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Scott Piercy 80/1
Brendan Steele 80/1
Beau Hossler 80/1
Patton Kizzire 80/1
Kevin Tway 80/1
Kevin Na 80/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
Bud Cauley 100/1
Martin Kaymer 100/1
Joaquin Niemann 100/1
Russell Knox 100/1
Jason Kokrak 100/1
J.J. Spaun 100/1
C.T. Pan 100/1
Charley Hoffman 125/1
Peter Uihlein 125/1
Chesson Hadley 125/1
Keith Mitchell 125/1
J.T. Poston 125/1
Harold Varner III 125/1
Joel Dahmen 125/1
Sam Burns 125/1
Charl Schwartzel 150/1
Bill Haas 150/1
Steve Stricker 150/1
Jimmy Walker 150/1
Stewart Cink 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Patrick Rodgers 150/1
Trey Mullinax 150/1
Chris Kirk 150/1
Nick Watney 150/1
Anders Albertson 150/1
Jhonattan Vegas 150/1
Brian Harman 150/1
Harris English 150/1
Ollie Schniederjans 150/1
Adam Long 200/1
Field (all others) 14/1

Best Bets

John Rahm — Any one who has read my stuff in the past knows I hate taking the favorite — but I’ll make an exception this week for John Rahm. Not only has the Spaniard been playing great golf recently, he’s (kind of) playing a home game this week. The Arizona State standout has finished T-5, T-16 and T-11 in his last three visits to TPC Scottsdale. Couple that with some great form as of late and it’s a recipe for success. At 7/1, I’m all in on Rahm. 

Phil Mickelson — After a week off to reflect and recharge, Phil Mickelson heads to the Waste Management looking to collect his fourth Phoenix Open title. Mickelson’s first start of the calendar year nearly ended in victory — coming up a single shot short of career win No. 44. Lefty may be a scant 17 months or so away from being Champions Tour eligible, but he shows no real signs of slowing down. At 20/1, you’d be foolish to pass on him this week. 

Sleeper Favorites: 

Webb Simpson — Is it just me or everyone who has a hard time believing its been six years since Webb Simpson won the U.S. Open. Lord, I’m getting old… Anyway, I have a feeling that this week in Scottsdale we’re going to see the old Webb Simpson show up. While he hasn’t teed it up since the Sentry Tournament of Champions, he did play well in his first three starts of the wraparound schedule — including a solo-3rd at the RSM Classic. At the Waste Management, Simpson has been a force — he’s 5-5 here since 2011 with a playoff loss in 2017 and no worse showing than T-14. At 20/1, the juice is worth the squeeze. 

Talor Gooch — Perhaps the best sleeper pick in the field this week is Talor Gooch. In case you haven’t been paying attention, Gooch has put himself in contention each of the last two weeks, chasing a solo-4th at the Desert Classic with a T-3 at the Farmers Insurance Open. This is the best golf the 27-year-old has played to date, so it’s hard to tell if he can sustain the momentum. At 80/1, I’m betting he can — at least for one more week. 

Prop Bet of the Week: 

With the Super Bowl coming up this Sunday in Atlanta, the country’s professional, amateur and degenerate gamblers are all buzzing like its Christmas — and if you’ve got some knowledge of both golf and football, then there are some interesting prop bets available. Instead of breaking them all down, I’ve listed a few of the best below, highlighting the ones I’m really fond of: 

Josh Reynolds receptions (-1.5) vs. Phil Mickelson bogeys or worse during final round in Phoenix
Robert Woods receiving yards (-3.5) vs. Dustin Johnson final-round score in Saudi Arabia
Greg Zuerlein points scored (-3.5) vs. Justin Thomas final-round birdies in Phoenix
Total yardage of all touchdowns scored (-18.5) vs. Rickie Fowler final-round score in Phoenix
Jon Rahm final-round score in Phoenix (-20.5)  vs. Yardage of longest single touchdown scored by either team
Brandin Cooks receptions (-0.5) vs. Brooks Koepka final-round birdies in Saudi Arabia
Julian Edelman receiving yards (-10.5) vs. Justin Rose final-round score in Saudi Arabia

There you have it, friends and degenerates! Now if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got a flight to catch. Looking forward to the Super Bowl in Atlanta this week where I’ll be celebrating a big parlay victory. For those of you who actually want to watch the game and find out who wins that way, stop reading NOW. I’m taking the Pats over the Rams, 31-27 and Talor Gooch in the desert. For those interested, that $20 parlay would bring in $2,584. Just sayin..

Until next time, go and choose wisely…