Golfstradamaus: Tour Championship & KLM Open

“Billy Horschel showed a lot of what he’s made of at the Deutsche Bank, finishing runner-up and jumping from 82nd in FedExCup points to 20th. Another solid performance this week would give Horschel a spot in the Tour Championship, where he finished T-7 last year. I think Horschel shows us what kind of competitor he is and bounces back in Colorado. At 60/1, you’d be remiss not to throw down at least a couple shekels on him this week.” – Golfstradamaus, 9/4/14

Hmm … I’m really sorry to have to do this because I really hate doing it, but — I told you so. I told you Tom Watson should’ve picked Billy Horschel for his Ryder Cup team and I told you he’d bounce back from the disappointment at the Deutsche Bank and win the BMW Championship. I told you so. 

That being said, you can’t live in the past or rest on your laurels — no matter how good they are. It’s time to move on to the Tour Championship in Atlanta, where the big $10 million prize is up for grabs. The top 30 players in FedExCup points will put it all on the line at East Lake, and while these picks probably won’t make you eight figures this week, you could still cash in — if you listen up. 

P.S.: For your betting pleasure, I’ve also added a couple sure-fire picks for the European Tour’s KLM Open this week, in case you’d like a couple more chances to line your wallet.

Tour Championship presented by Coca-Cola
East Lake Golf Club, Atlanta, Ga.
Sept. 11-14, 2014

ODDS to Win:
Rory McIlroy 7/2
Adam Scott 10/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Jim Furyk 12/1
Sergio Garcia 12/1
Justin Rose 15/1
Jordan Spieth 15/1
Bubba Watson 15/1
Jason Day 25/1
Bill Haas 25/1
Billy Horschel 25/1
Matt Kuchar 25/1
Martin Kaymer 25/1
Hunter Mahan 30/1
Zach Johnson 30/1
Webb Simpson 30/1
Jimmy Walker 30/1
Ryan Palmer 30/1
Chris Kirk 40/1
Hideki Matsuyama 40/1
Gary Woodland 50/1
Geoff Ogilvy 50/1
Morgan Hoffmann 50/1
John Senden 60/1
Kevin Na 60/1
Russell Henley 60/1
Patrick Reed 60/1
Brendon Todd 80/1
Cameron Tringale 100/1

The first name this week was last week’s winner and a potential man crush of mine — Billy HorschelSeriously, how could you not be putting money on this guy? The last two weeks he’s been the best guy on tour. A painful runner-up in Boston followed by a clutch win in Denver showed a lot of what confidence can do for a game and what kind of competitor Horschel is. Twenty-five-to-one for a guy playing as well and with as much swagger as Horschel is right now — coupled with the fact that he finished T-7 in his debut in the Tour Championship last year — and you’d be certifiably insane not to put something on him at East Lake. 


Last year’s hot new thing, Jordan Spieth has been rounding into form following a bit of a slump. Spieth heads into the Tour Championship fresh off his first top-1o since finishing T-7 at the John Deere Classic. He made his debut at East Lake last year and rolled to a T-2 finish. I think 15/1 might be a tad low for Spieth the way he’s currently playing, but it’s now or never and I find it hard to believe that he goes winless this year. I don’t think Spieth is worth a big bet, but certainly a little something this week. 

Jordan Spieth

Bubba Watson is one of the guys who controls his own destiny at the Tour Championship and might be the one to look out for. While everyone else is focused on the Billy Horschels and Rory McIlroys of the world, Watson could surprise. It’s not easy for him to fly under the radar, but that’s what he’s done coming into this week. Watson’s track record at East Lake isn’t super impressive, but he did finish T-5 here in 2012. He finished solo-second last week at the BMW and is poised to make a run at the FedExCup. It’s already been a very good year for Watson — two wins, including his second Masters title — and a win at East Lake would make it a career one. At 15/1, he won’t pay your mortgage with a win, but at least you’ll be right.

Bubba Watson anchor

Speaking of being right, I have to take Rory McIlroy this week. Why? There are a number of reasons. First of all, he’s already won two majors and four times around the world this year. This so-called “slump” he’s been in since winning the PGA Championship consists of finishes of T-22, T-5 and T-8. Of all the guys vying for the $10 million prize, McIlroy is the one with the most experience in these situations and the guy who has won on the biggest stages before. Besides a green jacket and a Players Championship, a FedExCup is the only thing missing on his mantle right now. And if all that isn’t good enough for you, I called this back in December of 2013. At 7/2, you’ll need to bet heavy, but McIlroy is almost a sure thing. 


The last name this week won’t win the FedExCup, but will be a very solid pick to win the tournament. Morgan Hoffmann didn’t have the greatest 2013-14 PGA Tour season, but he did just enough to make the playoffs. Since then, he’s been on the bubble every single week and found a way to advance. Now he’s made it to the Tour Championship on the heels of a career-best solo-third-place finish at the BMW Championship. At 50/1, I look for Hoffmann to continue his surprise streak. I don’t think he wins, but he certainly could — and if you were smart enough to throw down a couple bucks, you could be smiling wide on Monday morning. 

Morgan Hoffmann anchor

With most of the golf world’s focus on Atlanta this week, the European Tour is in the Netherlands for the KLM Open. I decided to make a couple picks here since it’s a bit of a weaker field. As you know, the very best in the world are at the Tour Championship this week. I figure it’ll give everyone a chance to put a bit of money on guys yielding bigger paydays for smaller bets — which we all like. 

KLM Open Kennemer Golf & Country Club
Zandvoort, The Netherlands
Sept. 11-14, 2014

ODDS to Win:  
Joost Luiten 10/1
Brooks Koepka 20/1
Thomas Bjorn 20/1
Paul Casey 20/1
Simon Dyson 25/1
Tommy Fleetwood 25/1
Shane Lowry 25/1
Marc Warren 25/1
Richie Ramsay 30/1
Miguel Angel Jimenez 30/1
Ross Fisher 30/1
Romain Wattel 40/1
Edoardo Molinari 40/1
Jonas Blixt 40/1
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano 40/1
Mikko Ilonen 40/1
Robert Karlsson 50/1
Eddie Pepperell 50/1
Matteo Manassero 60/1
Field (all others) 1/2

The first name I have for you at the KLM is Brooks Koepka. Since his surprise T-4 at the U.S. Open, Koepka has played some solid golf all over the world. Last week at the Omega European Masters, he finished T-3. This week, he’ll look to build on that showing and collect his first career win. At 20/1, he’s going to be a popular choice, but is still more of a sure thing and pays more than, say, Jordan Spieth does in Atlanta. 


Name No. 2 is Tommy Fleetwood. The young Englishman has sandwiched a T-24 at the Italian Open with two T-5 finishes at the Czech Masters and the Omega European Masters in his last three starts. He’s getting 25/1 this week, and could make you very happy should he pick up the win. I think he’s too talented to ignore, especially in a field this weak.  


Finally, I believe you’d be remiss not to throw a couple shekels on Jonas Blixt. The Swede hasn’t played well at all since finishing T-2 at the Masters in April, but this could be the week he gets back on the right track. He’s easily one of the five most talented players in the field this week and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come out on top. At 40/1, he’s a very good choice in the Netherlands. 

Jonas Blixt

That’s all for this week, kids. Best of luck to you. We all know the tour pros aren’t the only ones looking to hit it big this weekend. Until next time, go and choose wisely. 

– Golfstradamaus

Past Prophecies: Golfstradamaus Archive

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