Golfstradamus: AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Welcome back, friends and degenerates! After a week in the desert the PGA Tour moves north to “the greatest meeting of land and water in the world” for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am at the Pebble Beach Golf Links in Monterey, California. 

Spyglass Hill Golf Club and Monterey Peninsula Country Club’s Shore Course will also host rounds Thursday thru Saturday. 

While the Pebble Beach Pro-Am has long been one of the most looked-forward-to events on the calendar, this year’s trip presents an opportunity for the world’s best to get some scouting done for one of the year’s biggest prizes — the U.S. Open — which returns to Pebble this coming Father’s Day weekend. 

That said, their eyes will be firmly on the task at hand — winning here and now. Your focus should be there, too. There’ll be plenty of time to prognosticate the U.S. Open. Let’s focus our efforts on this week first. 

The field this week is an interesting one. Sure, there’s some firepower in there, but there’s also a spread of pros whose names elicit the same reaction as the one the construction workers had to the Indians spring training invitees in Major League. I’m here to help you wade through the murky waters. 

So, here’s a look at your can’t-miss, sure-fire, no-doubt, mortal locks for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Pebble Beach G L / Monterey Peninsula C C / Spyglass Hill G C – Pebble Beach, California
February 7 – 10, 2019

ODDS to Win:
Dustin Johnson 5/1
Jason Day 9/1
Tony Finau 18/1
Jordan Spieth 20/1
Tommy Fleetwood 20/1
Matt Kuchar 20/1
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Paul Casey 25/1
Patrick Cantlay 25/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Patrick Reed 30/1
Branden Grace 30/1
Chez Reavie 30/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 40/1
Shane Lowry 40/1
Adam Hadwin 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 50/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 50/1
Cameron Champ 50/1
Sungjae Im 50/1
Jason Kokrak 50/1
Kevin Kisner 60/1
Russell Knox 60/1
Scott Piercy 60/1
Andrew Putnam 60/1
J.B. Holmes 60/1
Beau Hossler 80/1
Russell Henley 80/1
Lucas Glover 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Jimmy Walker 100/1
Chesson Hadley 100/1
Pat Perez 100/1
Si Woo Kim 100/1
Austin Cook 100/1
Kevin Streelman 100/1
Dylan Frittelli 100/1
Ryan Palmer 100/1
Doug Ghim 100/1
Talor Gooch 100/1
Trey Mullinax 100/1
Nick Watney 100/1
J.J. Spaun 100/1
Graeme McDowell 125/1
Jim Furyk 125/1
Corey Conners 125/1
Michael Thompson 125/1
Ted Potter, Jr 125/1
Steve Stricker 150/1
John Catlin 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Aaron Baddeley 150/1
Chris Stroud 150/1
Sung Kang 150/1
Keith Mitchell 150/1
Ryan Armour 150/1
Nate Lashley 150/1
Patrick Rodgers 150/1
Matt Jones 150/1
Brian Gay 150/1
Vaughn Taylor 150/1
Joel Dahmen 150/1
James Hahn 150/1
Sangmoon Bae 150/1
Dominic Bozzelli 150/1
Ernie Els 200/1
Davis Love III 200/1
Anders Albertson 200/1
Richy Werenski 200/1
Cameron Davis 200/1
Hunter Mahan 200/1
Nick Taylor 200/1
Michael Kim 250/1
Kramer Hickok 250/1
Curtis Luck 250/1
Adam Long 250/1
Ho Sung Choi 300/1
David Duval 2000/1
Field (all others) 8/1

Mortal Locks: 

Dustin Johnson — Perhaps no player in the field this week is better suited for Pebble Beach than Dustin Johnson. With a track record like DJ has here, it’d be worth taking the action on him if he were getting 2/1 odds. Not only does he have two wins and seven top-5’s in 11 starts in this event, but he was also the 54-hole leader at the 2010 U.S. Open here. Oh! And if current form means anything to you, he won last week in Saudi Arabia. So there’s that. At 5/1, bet the farm on Dustin Johnson. 

Jordan Spieth — Where have you gone, Jordan Spieth? A nation turns its lonely eyes to you. It feels like forever since we’ve talked about Jordan Spieth being a “mortal lock” let alone at all on these pages. His struggles have been well-documented, but Spieth has been showing signs of the form that made makes him one of the world’s best in recent weeks. At 20/1, I’m a firm believer in the talent. 

Best Bets: 

Shane Lowry — One of my favorite players who doesn’t get enough attention is Shane Lowry. The Irishman has already won in 2019 (Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship) and heads to the Monterey Peninsula this week to make his season debut on the PGA Tour. In four tries at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am, Lowry has never missed a cut. He’s also never finished better than T-25. That said, I love his current form and truly believe this will be a break out year for him. I think his coming out party could start this week — and at 40/1, you’ll be glad you attended. 

Brandt Snedeker – The player who most intrigues me this week is Brandt Snedeker. Injuries have caused him to fall off most folks radar and, until he shows me something, will continue to be off mine — except at Pebble Beach, where he’s been nothing short of incredible. Since 2013, Sneds has picked up two wins here, a solo-4th and a T-20. If Snedeker is healthy, I’m certainly happy to take a flyer on him at 50/1. 

Fun Under $5:

Ho Sung Choi — I want to believe internet sensation Ho Sung Choi is for real. I really, really do. There have been plenty of pros questioning whether or not he belongs in this event, but I don’t know why. He’s won on other tours, suggesting his game is no fluke. Let’s be honest — Ted Potter, Jr. won here last year so LITERALLY anything is possible. At 300/1, why no put down $5 on the guy? It’ll be a great story if he wins and better for you if you cash in, too. 

There you have it, friends and degenerates. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’ve got to go figure out who I’m taking in Sunday’s Daytona 500 pole qualifying so I can parlay my win at Pebble into an even bigger payday. You say redneck, I say degenerate. 

Until next time, go and choose wisely