Welcome to Three Shots at the Green, where each week I’ll use my experience as a PGA Tour caddie and golf writer to identify the three best bets on the board.
With most of the game’s stars resting and prepping for the year’s second major, the PGA Tour returns to Texas this week for the AT&T Byron Nelson.
The Byron Nelson has been a fixture in Dallas since the 1960s and Nelson, who I had the pleasure of meeting a couple of times, was not only one of the giants of golf but also a true gentleman in every sense.
It’s a shame the tournament bearing his name has been played on such boring, nondescript courses for the last three decades, but that’s the best way I can describe TPC Craig Ranch, which is in its third year as the host.
A look inside the field @ATTByronNelson 🏌️
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) May 9, 2023
The course is a 7,468-yard, par-71 designed by Tom Weiskopf. Similar to the course in Mexico two weeks ago, it’s wide open and forgiving off the tee and puts a premium on hitting irons into the proper quadrants of the greens. Converting on the bentgrass surfaces is also necessary because the winning score should easily eclipse 20-under par.
Dealing with the wind is also an integral piece of a player’s skill set anytime the Tour heads to Texas. We focused on players in good form who have shown the ability to get red-hot in birdiefests.
Let’s take three shots at the green
Stephan Jaeger Top 20 +185
It’s difficult to lose strokes putting in 10 consecutive tournaments, but somehow Jaeger has. Despite his struggles on the greens, Jaeger made the cut in eight of those events thanks to excellent iron play. He finished T-18 in Mexico two weeks ago, gaining 8.2 shots on approach. Jaeger is top-25 in this field in scoring in easy conditions and bentgrass is the surface where he’s historically putted best. With every other area of his game firing, this is the week his putting turns around.
Eric Cole Top 20 +300
Cole was on the fringe of contention two weeks ago in Mexico as he continues a solid rookie season. The 34-year old Floridian doesn’t mind breezy conditions, has gained shots on approach in seven of the last eight tournaments and bettered the field average Tee-to-Green in the last five. When the world’s best players are resting, Cole can contend. He has a second, fifth and 15th in his last seven starts.
Michael Kim Top 20 +375
The market hasn’t been paying attention to Kim, a former Haskins Award winner, who is on the rebound after struggling early in his pro career. Kim isn’t afraid of blitzing the scoreboard – he shot 27-under when he won the John Deere Classic and has gained shots on approach in five of the last six tournaments, finishing fifth, seventh and 11th in the span. He’s also gained at least three shots putting in his last four tournaments.
YTD: -15 units
