Welcome to Three Shots at the Green, where each week I’ll use my experience as a PGA Tour caddie and golf writer to identify the three best bets on the board.
The PGA Tour treks south this week for the Mexico Open and the weak field offers opportunities for struggling veterans or rising young stars to contend for a title.
There are only eight top-100 players in the field, led by the defending champion Jon Rahm, who is looking forward to taking some time off in the wake of his Masters victory.
Last year was the debut at the par-71, 7,456 yard Vidanta Vallarta course, a Greg Norman design that favors the bombers, featuring wide fairways and slow Paspalum greens. While the data is limited, the recipe for success here is simple: Big drives, strong approach play from 175-225 yards and sharp par-5 scoring.
In theory, the 144-man field should be wide open but then again the betting favorite won a year ago.
Views and adventure.
The commute to the course @MexicoOpenGolf 🤩 pic.twitter.com/GvtuOOsmxh
— PGA TOUR (@PGATOUR) April 25, 2023
We’re looking deeper down the board to take three shots at the green.
Gary Woodland Top-20 +120
The 2019 U.S. Open champion dealt with injuries and inconsistent ballstriking in recent seasons, leaving backers in the lurch with his wild fluctuation from week-to-week. He’s settled into a groove again of late, making seven of the last eight cuts including a T-14 at the Masters, finally solving Augusta National after years of poor results there.
Excellent driving and improved iron play has fueled Woodland’s ascent. He gained at least 1.6 shots Off the Tee in his last 11 starts and has averaged 2.4 shots gained on approach over the last five. There’s no reason he shouldn’t contend in Mexico.
Nicolai Hojgaard Top 20 +145
Earlier this season, Hojgaard finished second in Punta Cana, also played on Paspalum putting surfaces. He’s fourth in the field in driving distance over the last 36 rounds and 24th in SG: Approach in the same span. Hojgaard has two wins already on the DP World Tour and is comfortable in a birdiefest, firing 24-under to claim the Ras Al Khaimah Classic in 2022.
In all starts, he’s averaging 324 yards off the tee and hitting 73 percent of greens in regulation over the last 36 rounds. This 22-year-old Dane is going to be a Ryder Cup stalwart and PGA Tour member for many years to come.
Taylor Pendrith Top 20 +180
This has not been a good year for Pendrith so far. He’s 113th in the FedEx Cup standings and other than a top-10 at Pebble Beach, the results are dismal. The talented Canadian needs a push toward the playoffs over the next three-and-a-half months and no better place to start than Mexico, which suits his skill set.
Pendrith is top 40 in this field in SG: OTT, par-5 scoring and SG: Tee-to-Green over the last 36 rounds. He’s also sixth in the important 175-200 yards proximity category over the last 100 rounds. Hopefully he can dial in the short irons to create even more scoring opportunities in Mexico.
Season: -9.9 units
